
Currently, Google’s mobile platform, Android has just 1% of the almost 600 million smartphones in use today, but the analyst firm Analysys Mason predicts it will raise to 30% by 2014.
If the prediction comes true, Android will become the market leader slightly ahead of Symbian, which is forecast to claim a market share of 29%, compared with more than 50% in 2010.
"Android will find a niche in both developed and emerging markets," the Analysys Mason report said, while Symbian's scale will come largely from the growth markets Nokia has said it will target.
"Smartphone OS like Samsung’s bada, Apple’s iPhone and RIM’s Blackberry are likely to be relatively successful in either the developed or emerging markets, but not in both," the company said. For example, it sees iPhone and Windows Mobile gaining a stronger presence in developed markets, due to the high-end nature of the devices they run on, while bada will have more of an impact in emerging markets.
More than 50% of this growth will be generated in developing Asia–Pacific and Latin American markets while Western European, North American and developed Asia–Pacific markets combined will account for less than 30% of total growth, so it is clear that the market for smartphones will transform over the coming years.
"Smartphone markets in the developed world will continue to be fiercely competitive, but handset manufacturers such as Nokia and Samsung are lining up to tap a new opportunity in emerging markets," said Jim Morrish, author of the report and principal analyst at Analysys Mason's mobile content and applications unit.
“The ingredients of a successful mobile data proposition in emerging markets will be different to those in developed markets, and I don’t think that an iPhone will be one of them. In the medium term, Android-, bada- and Symbian OS-based devices will dominate these new markets.”
Analysys Mason report: Smartphones forecast to grow to 26% of handsets by 2014.




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